美国2014年5月成屋销售增幅超乎预估

《美国洋房网》自全美房地产经纪人协会(NAR)了解到，美国5月成屋销售增幅超乎预估，迹象显示在气候重创的一季度后，房市回稳。全美房地产经纪人协会(NAR)23日公布，5月成屋销售成长4.9%，折合年率达489万户，创去年10月以来最高，增幅为2011年8月以来最大。

由于就业市场持续复苏，专家预料今后数月成屋销售将再增加。彭博资讯报导，房屋供应量增加，房价涨幅缩小，就业攀升，加上仍在历史低档的借贷成本可能鼓励更多美国人进入房市。彭博调查值介于463万户至490万户。 4月年率自原先公布的465万户，上修至466万户。 23日的报告显示，5月成屋中间价较上年同期成长5.1%，达21万3400美元。年涨幅创下2012年3月以来最小。市面上成​​屋数量较上年同期增加6%，达228万户。以目前的销售速度来看，清空余屋需要5.6个月时间。

NAR首席经济学家劳伦斯．尹(Lawrence Yun)表示，本月的供给量符合一个均衡的市场，但住宅转手得相当快。尽管房贷利率走低使得民众较买得起房子，但预测美国房贷利率将再走高，于明年首季达5%。 <BR><BR>他指出，自去年7月起出现的成屋销售萎缩现象已经消失，基于就业市场持续复苏，预料今后数月成屋销售料再扩大。路透则引述道明证券(TD Securities)驻纽约经济分析师Gennadiy Goldberg说，5月成屋销售升幅大于预期，暗示房屋市场正在摆脱近期的下滑局面。他说，“房屋市场要从近期的迟滞状态中复苏，还有一段路要走，但楼市已经开始显露活力迹象“。他分析5月成屋销售成长，主要受独栋房屋销售上升驱动，这是市场中所占比重最大的部分。因利率上升且房价大涨，同时待售屋供应减少，房市复苏的脚步在去年下半年陷入停滞。但分析师说，现在抵押贷款利率在攀升后已经趋平，目前库存上升也给潜在买家带来更多选择。

详细英文报道：

WASHINGTON (June 23, 2014) – Existing-home sales rose strongly in May and inventory gains continued to help moderate price growth, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All four regions of the country experienced sales gains compared to a month earlier.

Total existing-home sales¹, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 4.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million in May from an upwardly-revised 4.66 million in April, but remain 5.0 percent below the 5.15 million-unit level in May 2013. The 4.9 percent month-over-month gain in May was the highest monthly rise since August 2011 (5.5 percent).

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said current sales activity is rebounding after the lackluster first quarter. “Home buyers are benefiting from slower price growth due to the much-needed, rising inventory levels seen since the beginning of the year,” he said. “Moreover, sales were helped by the improving job market and the temporary but slight decline in mortgage rates.”

Total housing inventory² at the end of May climbed 2.2 percent to 2.28 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 5.6-month supply at the current sales pace, down slightly from 5.7 months in April. Unsold inventory is 6.0 percent higher than a year ago, when there were 2.15 million existing homes available for sale.

The median existing-home price³ for all housing types in May was $213,400, which is 5.1 percent above May 2013. “Rising inventory bodes well for slower price growth and greater affordability, but the amount of homes for sale is still modestly below a balanced market. Therefore, new home construction is still needed to keep prices and housing supply healthy in the long run,” Yun added.

Earlier this month, NAR reported new home construction activity is currently insufficient in most of the U.S., and some states could face persistent housing shortages and affordability issues unless housing starts increase to match up with local job creation.

Distressed homes⁴ – foreclosures and short sales – accounted for 11 percent of May sales, down from 18 percent in May 2013. Eight percent of May sales were foreclosures and three percent were short sales. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 18 percent below market value in May, while short sales were discounted 11 percent.

The percent share of first-time buyers continued to underperform, representing less than one- third of all buyers at 27 percent in May, down from 29 percent in April; they were 29 percent in April 2013.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 4.19 percent in May from 4.34 percent in April, and is the lowest since June 2013 (4.07 percent).

NAR President Steve Brown, co-owner of Irongate, Inc., Realtors® in Dayton, Ohio, said housing fundamentals are showing slight improvement in markets across the country. “Many potential buyers were left on the sidelines beginning last summer as affordability declined amidst rising home prices and interest rates,” he said. “The temporary pause in rising interest rates and more homes for sale is good news – especially for first-time home buyers – who likely have a better chance in upcoming months to make a competitive offer that’s in return accepted by the seller.”

The median time on market for all homes was 47 days in May, down from 48 days in April; it was 41 days on market in May 2013. Short sales were on the market for a median of 125 days in May, while foreclosures typically sold in 57 days and non-distressed homes took 44 days. Forty-one percent of homes sold in May were on the market for less than a month.

All-cash sales comprised 32 percent of transactions in May, unchanged from last month and down from 33 percent in May 2013. Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 16 percent of homes in May, down from 18 percent in April; they were 18 percent in May 2013. Sixty-eight percent of investors paid cash in May.

Single-family home sales rose 5.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.30 million in May from 4.07 million in April, but remain 5.7 percent below the 4.56 million pace a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $213,600 in May, up 4.9 percent from May 2013.

Existing condominium and co-op sales remained unchanged in May from April (as well as May 2013) at an annual rate of 590,000 units. The median existing condo price was $212,300 in May, which is 6.6 percent higher than a year ago.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 3.3 percent to an annual rate of 620,000 in May, but are 3.1 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $256,700, down 0.9 percent from May 2013.

In the Midwest, existing-home sales jumped 8.7 percent to an annual rate of 1.13 million in May, but are still 7.4 percent below May 2013. The median price in the Midwest was $165,900, up 4.0 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the South increased 5.7 percent to an annual level of 2.05 million in May, but are down 0.5 percent from May 2013. The median price in the South was $184,800, up 4.4 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West rose 0.9 percent to an annual rate of 1.09 million in May, and are 11.4 percent below a year ago. The median price in the West was $297,500, which is 8.4 percent above May 2013.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

¹Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings from Multiple Listing Services. Changes in sales trends outside of MLSs are not captured in the monthly series. NAR rebenchmarks home sales periodically using other sources to assess overall home sales trends, including sales not reported by MLSs.

Existing-home sales, based on closings, differ from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which account for more than 90 percent of total home sales, are based on a much larger data sample – about 40 percent of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.

The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.

Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.

²Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982 (prior to 1999, single- family sales accounted for more than 90 percent of transactions and condos were measured only on a quarterly basis).

³The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical of market conditions than average prices, which are skewed higher by a relatively small share of upper-end transactions. The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if additional data is received.

The national median condo/co-op price often is higher than the median single-family home price because condos are concentrated in higher-cost housing markets. However, in a given area, single- family homes typically sell for more than condos as seen in NAR’s quarterly metro area price reports.

⁴Distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales), days on market, first-time buyers, all-cash transactions and investors are from a monthly survey for the NAR’s Realtors® Confidence Index, posted at Realtor.org.

Realtor.com®, NAR’s listing site, posts metro area median listing price and inventory data at: www.realtor.com/data-portal/Real-Estate-Statistics.aspx.

The Pending Home Sales Index for May will be released June 30, and existing-home sales for June is scheduled for July 22; release times are 10:00 a.m. EDT.