2023 CALIFORNIA HOUSING FORECAST

	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022p	2023f
SFH Resales(000s)	417.7	424.9	402.6	398	411.9	444.5	359.2	333.4
% Change	2.0%	1.7%	-5.2%	-1.2%	3.5%	7.9%	-19.2%	-7.2%
Median Price($000s)	$502.3	$537.9	$569.5	$592.4	$659.4	$786.7	$831.5	$758.6
% Change	5.4%	7.1%	5.9%	4.0%	11.3%	19.3%	5.7%	-8.8%
HousingAffordabilityIndex*	31%	29%	28%	31%	32%	26%	19%	18%
30-Yr FRM	3.6%	4.0%	4.5%	3.9%	3.1%	3.0%	5.2%	6.6%

p = projected
f = forecast

* = % of households who can afford median-priced home

联邦房屋抵押贷款公司「房地美」（Freddie Mac）15日公布的调查结果发现，全美30年期房贷利率平均已达6.02%之际，今年7月，南加房屋销售量就比去年同期减少了35%。

30年期房贷利率已高于上周的5.89%，也是2008年11月的6.04%后再度攀上6.00%的高位。同时，值得购屋者留心的是，房地美的利率估算是假设贷款人信用优良且头期能付20%，因此经济条件差的人利率可能更高。

受到新冠疫情影响，一年前的30年期房贷利率平均只有2.86%，但是随着通货膨胀加剧、联准会（FED）持续升息，利率因此再度攀上高峰。同时之间，再融资的15年期贷款利率也由5.16%升至5.21%，一年之前仅2.12%。未来如果情势不变，利率还有可能再度攀高，房仲业者预估，高利率将会冲击房市需求，导致房价在2023年下跌。

迹象之一是，今年7月，南加房屋销售量就比去年同期减少了35%，中位价只上升了8.8%，但回顾今年4月时，中位价可是年增17%。利率大增，购屋者要负担的钱就更多，与去年同期相比，74万元的房子、头期款20%，利率增至6.02%，代表月付额增加1105元。74万元正是南加7月时的中位价，如果房价100万，月付额增加1494元。

房价最大的变量还是来自联邦利率是升还降，但是其他因素也不可忽略，除了通膨之外，还有就业市场的缺人是否趋缓。但是专家认为，劳动市场的需求仍然强劲，加上经济衰退的风险不高，通膨还可能维持高位，因此房贷利率短期内恐怕难以降低。

Home price growth in the U.S. surged in April at a pace not seen in more than 30 years.

Standard & Poor’s said Tuesday that its S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index posted a 14.6% annual gain in April, up from 13.3% in March — marking the 11th straight month of accelerating prices. The 20-City Composite posted a 14.9% annual gain, up from 13.4% a month earlier. The results far outpaced analysts’ expectations of a 14.7% annual gain, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates.

“April’s performance was truly extraordinary. The 14.6% gain in the National Composite is literally the highest reading in more than 30 years of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data,” said Craig J. Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in a press statement. “Housing prices in all 20 cities rose; price gains in all 20 cities accelerated; price gains in all 20 cities were in the top quartile of historical performance.”This content is not available due to your privacy preferences.Update your settings here to see it.

Phoenix, Dan Diego, and Seattle continued to lead the 20-City composite. Phoenix led for the 23rd month in a row posting a 22.3% annual increase, followed by San Diego with a 21.6% increase and Seattle with a 20.2% increase.

Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren told Yahoo Finance last week that he was “concerned about rising home prices, but noted that the hot real estate market is “not at a point where we should be panicked.”

The results were expected and follow similar data pointing to skyrocketing home prices well into the busy spring season. Last week, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that the median existing-home price for all housing types in May was $350,300, up 23.6% from May 2020 ($283,500), as every region registered price increases — a record high and marking 111 straight months of year-over-year gains since March 2012.

“While the acceleration may be met with concerns, mortgage interest rates remain 50% lower than they were in 2005, when home price growth last peaked, keeping the ratio of mortgage payments to monthly households income lower today,” CoreLogic Deputy Chief Economist Selma Hepp said in a press statement. “It’s probably that continued massive demand will keep pressure on prices, which are likely to remain at double-digit growth rate throughout the remainder of 2021.” 

“Higher costs for building materials and labor have been putting upwards pressure on home prices. Strong demand for homes coupled with tight inventories should support further home prices gains,” said Bank of America in a recent research note. BofA expected a 14% annual increased in the index.

A new report from the NAR found that the housing market needs to build at least 5.5 million new units, both single-family and multi-family homes, just to keep up with demand and keep home ownership affordable over the next decade.

Total housing inventory at the end of May amounted to 1.23 million units, up 7.0% from April’s inventory and down 20.6% from one year ago, according to the NAR. Unsold inventory sits at a 2.5-month supply at the present sales pace, marginally up from April’s 2.4-month supply but down from 4.6 months in May 2020.

The lack of homes for sales is also slowing home buying activity. Existing home sales slid for the fourth straight month in May, according to the NAR. 

“Home sales fell moderately in May and are now approaching pre-pandemic activity,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, in a press statement. “Lack of inventory continues to be the overwhelming factor holding back home sales, but falling affordability is simply squeezing some first-time buyers out of the market.”

May-21	Median Sold Price of Existing Single-Family Homes	Sales
State/Region/County	May-21	Apr-21		May-20		Price MTM% Chg	Price YTY% Chg	Sales MTM% Chg	Sales YTY% Chg
CA SFH (SAAR)	$818,260	$814,010	r	$588,070		0.5%	39.1%	-2.7%	86.7%
CA Condo/Townhomes	$592,000	$570,000		$464,900		3.9%	27.3%	-8.8%	150.9%
Los Angeles Metropolitan Area	$725,000	$725,000		$535,000		0.0%	35.5%	-5.2%	81.0%
Central Coast	$900,000	$925,620		$678,500		-2.8%	32.6%	-4.7%	111.8%
Central Valley	$445,000	$435,000		$350,000		2.3%	27.1%	-0.4%	44.0%
Far North	$365,000	$367,250		$299,000		-0.6%	22.1%	2.1%	58.6%
Inland Empire	$510,000	$500,000		$395,740		2.0%	28.9%	-4.3%	58.4%
S.F. Bay Area	$1,340,000	$1,328,440		$965,000		0.9%	38.9%	-5.2%	104.6%
Southern California	$752,250	$750,000		$565,000		0.3%	33.1%	-4.8%	80.0%
S.F. Bay Area	May-21	Apr-21		May-20		Price MTM% Chg	Price YTY% Chg	Sales MTM% Chg	Sales YTY% Chg
Alameda	$1,312,500	$1,300,000		$955,000		1.0%	37.4%	-1.6%	130.2%
Contra Costa	$1,015,000	$990,000		$690,000		2.5%	47.1%	-6.6%	95.1%
Marin	$1,632,500	$1,610,000		$1,500,000		1.4%	8.8%	-1.5%	61.0%
Napa	$837,500	$950,000		$672,500		-11.8%	24.5%	-5.7%	118.9%
San Francisco	$1,900,000	$1,800,000		$1,627,500		5.6%	16.7%	-9.2%	136.5%
San Mateo	$2,075,000	$2,001,000		$1,650,000		3.7%	25.8%	-1.9%	94.4%
Santa Clara	$1,675,000	$1,650,000		$1,365,000		1.5%	22.7%	-8.2%	131.8%
Solano	$579,000	$555,000		$482,000		4.3%	20.1%	-7.5%	10.3%
Sonoma	$780,000	$777,500		$675,000		0.3%	15.6%	-2.5%	158.5%
Southern California	May-21	Apr-21		May-20		Price MTM% Chg	Price YTY% Chg	Sales MTM% Chg	Sales YTY% Chg
Los Angeles	$725,680	$718,440	r	$553,710	r	1.0%	31.1%	-3.1%	80.7%
Orange	$1,100,000	$1,100,000		$834,550		0.0%	31.8%	-10.1%	130.9%
Riverside	$560,000	$545,500		$434,480		2.7%	28.9%	-5.2%	60.4%
San Bernardino	$410,000	$405,000		$320,000		1.2%	28.1%	-2.5%	54.8%
San Diego	$851,000	$825,120		$655,000		3.1%	29.9%	-3.2%	76.1%
Ventura	$806,000	$865,000		$681,250		-6.8%	18.3%	-7.8%	119.5%
Central Coast	May-21	Apr-21		May-20		Price MTM% Chg	Price YTY% Chg	Sales MTM% Chg	Sales YTY% Chg
Monterey	$887,000	$840,000		$650,000		5.6%	36.5%	0.4%	153.3%
San Luis Obispo	$775,000	$799,950		$632,500		-3.1%	22.5%	-10.4%	99.3%
Santa Barbara	$1,299,000	$1,100,000		$637,500		18.1%	103.8%	-2.1%	99.3%
Santa Cruz	$1,300,000	$1,265,000		$850,000		2.8%	52.9%	-4.9%	110.9%
Central Valley	May-21	Apr-21		May-20		Price MTM% Chg	Price YTY% Chg	Sales MTM% Chg	Sales YTY% Chg
Fresno	$361,500	$355,000		$295,000		1.8%	22.5%	3.8%	40.5%
Glenn	$384,000	$302,500		$323,250		26.9%	18.8%	-54.2%	-8.3%
Kern	$317,000	$315,000		$270,000		0.6%	17.4%	-3.6%	60.8%
Kings	$315,000	$305,000		$249,950		3.3%	26.0%	-17.4%	13.6%
Madera	$360,000	$378,000		$297,500		-4.8%	21.0%	5.3%	34.3%
Merced	$350,000	$325,000		$285,000		7.7%	22.8%	1.7%	12.0%
Placer	$663,450	$625,000		$515,000		6.2%	28.8%	-2.3%	53.1%
Sacramento	$500,000	$490,000		$395,000		2.0%	26.6%	-0.3%	46.1%
San Benito	$810,000	$722,500		$660,500		12.1%	22.6%	-7.8%	195.0%
San Joaquin	$500,000	$490,000		$415,000		2.0%	20.5%	10.0%	55.7%
Stanislaus	$440,000	$419,000		$350,000		5.0%	25.7%	-5.7%	37.8%
Tulare	$324,350	$309,600		$255,250		4.8%	27.1%	-1.2%	17.4%
Far North	May-21	Apr-21		May-20		Price MTM% Chg	Price YTY% Chg	Sales MTM% Chg	Sales YTY% Chg
Butte	$449,000	$438,500		$362,000		2.4%	24.0%	-10.9%	63.2%
Lassen	$247,450	$253,000		$195,000		-2.2%	26.9%	4.3%	41.2%
Plumas	$423,000	$400,000		$269,000		5.8%	57.2%	31.7%	260.0%
Shasta	$360,000	$350,000		$297,000		2.9%	21.2%	10.2%	53.3%
Siskiyou	$289,000	$302,500		$230,000		-4.5%	25.7%	-25.9%	10.3%
Tehama	$348,000	$362,000		$290,000		-3.9%	20.0%	11.9%	51.6%
Other Counties in California	May-21	Apr-21		May-20		Price MTM% Chg	Price YTY% Chg	Sales MTM% Chg	Sales YTY% Chg
Amador	$427,500	$415,000		$321,000		3.0%	33.2%	2.9%	80.0%
Calaveras	$473,800	$475,000		$330,000		-0.3%	43.6%	5.1%	55.2%
Del Norte	$415,000	$364,170		$338,450		14.0%	22.6%	-59.1%	-59.1%
El Dorado	$688,000	$654,750		$535,000		5.1%	28.6%	4.3%	79.8%
Humboldt	$400,000	$425,000		$340,750		-5.9%	17.4%	18.3%	84.3%
Lake	$360,000	$324,950		$300,000		10.8%	20.0%	-10.4%	72.0%
Mariposa	$415,000	$343,200		$280,000		20.9%	48.2%	0.0%	100.0%
Mendocino	$602,500	$528,000		$426,000		14.1%	41.4%	2.0%	100.0%
Mono	$1,140,000	$974,000		$520,150		17.0%	119.2%	-25.0%	400.0%
Nevada	$563,250	$555,000		$410,000		1.5%	37.4%	-11.2%	42.9%
Sutter	$410,000	$410,000		$342,550		0.0%	19.7%	37.3%	102.5%
Tuolumne	$390,700	$367,000		$319,000		6.5%	22.5%	7.2%	103.9%
Yolo	$617,500	$566,000		$443,000		9.1%	39.4%	8.6%	83.1%
Yuba	$400,000	$384,700		$320,000		4.0%	25.0%	37.8%	100.0%

据《洛杉矶时报》报道，南加州的房价在过去的5月份飙升近25%，再创历史新高，但一些数据表明，经过这轮飙升后，民众对房产的需求可能放缓。

报道引述数据公司 DQNews 周二发布的数据显示，南加州六县地区的销售价格的中位数，自 2020 年 5 月以来上涨了 24.7%，上个月达到创纪录的 66.7 万美元，销售额也比上年同期激增。

• 洛杉矶县，5 月份房价中位数上涨了 25%，达到创纪录的 77.5万美元，而销售额则攀升了 117%。
• 橙县，房价中位数上涨 19.3% 至创纪录的 89.5万美元，而销售额则攀升 113.4%。
• 河滨县，房价中位数上涨了 22.5%，达到创纪录的 50.2万美元，而销售额则攀升了 81.7%。
• 圣贝纳迪诺县，房价中位数上涨 16.8% 至 43.2万美元，而销售额攀升 61%。
• 圣地亚哥县，房价中位数上涨了 22.9%，达到创纪录的 72.5万美元，而销售额则攀升了 81.7%。
• 文图拉县，房价中位数上涨 20.9% 至创纪录的 70.2万美元，而销售额则攀升 128.7%。

Los Angeles County home sales drop 11% after $155,000 price jump from a year ago. Here’s from DQNews/CoreLogic’s report on closed transactions in May from Los Angeles County.

Sales: 7,800 existing and new residences sold — down 7% from April. May has average 6.1% gains since 1988 in a one-month period where transactions rose in 27 of the last 34 years.

Past 12 months? 83,833 Los Angeles County sales — up 21% above the previous 12 months and 9% above the 10-year average but 10-year average and 13% off the pace since 1988.

Prices: The countywide $775,000 median was up $155,000 or 25% — over 12 months. Over 10 years, gains averaged 9.2% annually. The latest 12-month gain ranks No. 13 of 389 periods since 1988. The latest median breaks the record of $750,000 set in March and April.

The median’s $155,000 increase equals $17.69 for each hour over 12 months.

Rates on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.03% in the three months ending in May vs. 3.33% a year earlier. That translates to 4% more buying power for house hunters.

At these rates, a buyer with 20% down would pay $2,625 a month on the $775,000 median sale vs. $2,180 on last year’s $620,000 median. So during the past year, the typical house payment became 20.4% pricier.

Homes sold averaged just eight days on the market in the Inland Empire; 10 days in Los Angeles and Orange counties, Zillow reported.

Orange County: 3,491 sold, up 113% in year. Median? record $895,000 — a 19% increase.

Riverside County: 4,358 sales, up 82% in year. Median? record $502,250 — a 23% increase.

San Bernardino County: 2,960 sold, up 61% in year. Median? $432,000 — a 17% increase.

San Diego County: 4,222 sales, up 82% in year. Median? record $725,000 — a 23% increase.

Ventura County: 1,125 sold, up 129% in year. Median? $701,500 — a 21% increase.

Southern California home prices reached an all-time high in February as buyers competed amid a shortage of homes for sale, adding to signs that pandemic home-buying trends are extending into 2021.

The six-county region’s median sales price jumped nearly 15% from a year earlier to $619,750, according to data from real estate firm DQNews.

Sales surged 17.6% from February 2020.

The numbers, published Tuesday, show how a pandemic housing boom driven by historically low borrowing costs and by demand for more space is extending into 2021. Another factor: Many millennials are entering their early 30s — a time when many people purchase their first home.

The data show that the increase in demand, however, has not been met by a surge in listings, leading to bidding wars and subsequent higher prices.

According to Redfin, the number of new listings coming onto the market in L.A. County during the four weeks that ended March 7 was just 4% higher than in the same period last year.

And with homes selling quickly in recent months, people had 13% fewer options to choose from over that period, the data show.

Daryl Fairweather, chief economist with real estate brokerage Redfin, said more homes aren’t coming up for sale because some owners don’t want to buy another home in a tough market, and some may have refinanced at record lows and are satisfied with their mortgage.

Some wealthy owners are also choosing to buy another house farther from their jobs, she said, but holding on to their old home, unsure where they want to settle down as the pandemic recedes and the economy starts to recover.

Builders are trying to ramp up to meet demand. But that takes time, and soaring lumber costs have made projects more difficult to get off the ground.

“New construction can’t keep up with demand,” Fairweather said.

Sales and prices are rising throughout the region.

• In Los Angeles County, the median sales price rose 14.3% to $708,500 in February, while sales climbed 19.1%.
• In Orange County, the median sales price rose 9.6% to a record $820,000, while sales climbed 13%.
• In Riverside County, the median sales price rose 16.5% to a record $465,000, while sales climbed 18.3%.
• In San Bernardino County, the median sales price rose 17.7% to a record $412,000, while sales climbed 21.5%.
• In San Diego County, the median sales price rose 14.6% to a record $672,750, while sales climbed 13.8%.
• In Ventura County, the median sales price rose 13% to $650,000, while sales climbed 23.9%.

A major factor in the sales and price boom has been a drop in borrowing costs during the pandemic, with the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage falling below 3% for the first time.

Rates have been on the rise in recent weeks and now average slightly above 3%. If the economy improves, rates could keep rising, but many experts expect borrowing costs to remain low by historical standards throughout 2021.

The California housing market ended the previous year on a high note as sales remained strong in December and median house price reached another record high. The same momentum has been carried forward in 2021. In the first month of 2021, the California housing market had its largest increase in sales and pricing in 17 years. Continuing the California housing market’s hot streak, home sales record eighth straight year-over-year gain, C.A.R. reports. Year-to-date statewide home sales were up 15.9 percent in February.

Home sales and prices ease as compared to the previous month but strong buying interest continues to provide support to the market. The median price paid for all homes sold in February was $699,000, down 0.1 percent from January but up 20.6 percent from February 2020, according to new data from the California Association of Realtors. Homes are moving 56% faster than a year ago; the median time on the market was 10 days in February.

The existing single-family home sales totaled 462,720 in February on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 4.5 percent from January and up 9.7 percent from February 2020. The year-over-year sales gain was the eighth consecutive. Tight supply and steady demand from home buyers boosted home sales across California real estate market. All major regions, except for the Central Valley, experienced a surge in sales from a year ago.

These trends show us that the California housing market remains very competitive. Growth of sales are prices are driven by low mortgagee rates, buyers seeking more living space, and a perennial shortage of houisng supply. Homes are selling quickly with a minimal price reduction. The statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio was 101 percent in February 2021 and 99.1 percent in February 2020. If it’s above 100%, the home sold for more than the list price. If it’s less than 100%, the home sold for less than the list price.

High demand across all California’s sub-markets means that low inventory and lightning-fast market conditions are not going away soon. There just aren’t enough homes listed for sale to satisfy the demand from buyers. C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index (UII) remains low at 2 months in February and was down sharply from 3.6 months in February 2020. The index indicates the number of months it would take to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current rate of sales.

The housing affordability index has decreased by 13% for the last quarter (Q4 2020). According to the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.), over a third (35.5 percent) of homebuyers paid more than what home sellers asked for in 2020, compared to a quarter (26.7 percent) in 2019. In fact, last year’s level is the highest in seven years and is 16 percent higher than the long-run average.

Mortgage companies could face penalties if they don’t take steps to prevent a deluge of foreclosures that threatens to hit the housing market later this year, a U.S. regulator said Thursday.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau warning is tied to forbearance relief that’s allowed million of borrowers to delay their mortgage payments due to the pandemic. To avoid what the bureau called “avoidable foreclosures” when the relief lapses, mortgage servicers should start reaching out to affected homeowners now to advise them on ways they can modify their loans.

“There is a tidal wave of distressed homeowners who will need help,” Dave Uejio, the CFPB’s acting director, said in a statement. “Servicers who put struggling families first have nothing to fear from our oversight, but we will hold accountable those who cause harm to homeowners and families.”

In a separate compliance bulletin released Thursday, the CFPB said that companies “that are unable to adequately manage loss mitigation can expect the bureau to take enforcement or supervisory action.”

More than 2 million borrowers as of January had either postponed their payments or failed to make them for at least three months, the bureau said. Once government-authorized forbearance plans begin to end in September, hundreds of thousands of people may need assistance getting back on track.

After falling three years in a row, sales of existing single-family homes are forecast to rebound 3.3% In 2021, according to the California Association of Realtors. The median California house price will rise 1.3% to $648,800, the forecast says.

California house sales will rebound slightly next year from the pandemic, and home prices will continue edging upward, thanks to rock-bottom mortgage rates and strong homeownership demand,  according to the state Realtors’ 2021 housing forecast.

But lingering economic uncertainty and a shortage of homes for sale will keep 2021 price and sales gains in check.

Even with rising employment and rebounding gross domestic product, the overall economy won’t be back to full strength by 2021, forecast numbers show.

“The uncertainty about the pandemic, sluggish economic growth, a rise in foreclosures, and the volatility of the stock market are all unknown factors that could keep prices in check and prevent the statewide median price from rising too fast in the upcoming year,” said California Association of Realtors Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young.

Sales of existing single-family homes are forecast to increase to 392,500 transactions in the state next year, up 3.3% from this year’s projected total of 380,100.

If the 2020 projection is accurate, this year’s sales will have declined for a third straight year, dropping 4.5%.

Next year’s forecasted sales still would be down 3.3% from 2019 levels.

Existing houses make up about two-thirds of all home sales.

Meanwhile, prices are expected to continue rising next year. The median price of an existing house is forecast to hit $648,800, up 1.3% from 2020’s projected median of $640,300.

This year’s price is projected to rise 8.1% from 2019, due in part to strong sales of higher-priced homes, which skews the median upward, Appleton-Young said.

Prices have risen steadily since 2012, when the median for the full year was $319,300.

The U.S. GDP will rise 4.2% in 2021 after a projected drop of 5% this year, according to the forecast. Employment isn’t expected to get back to pre-pandemic levels, with non-farm jobs rising just 0.5% in 2021. That would follow a projected loss of 12.7% this year.

The 2021 jobless rate is forecast to dip to 9% next year, down from a projected rate of 10.8% in 2020.

Financing also is expected to remain close to historic lows. The 2021 mortgage rate for 30-year fixed-rate loans will average 3.1% in 2021, according to the forecast, compared with a projected year-long average of 3.2% this year.

The 30-year mortgage averaged 2.87% last week and has been below 3% for the past 2 ½ months, according to Freddie Mac.

“An extremely favorable lending environment and a strong interest in homeownership will continue to motivate financially eligible buyers to enter the market,” said 2020 CAR President Jeanne Radsick of Bakersfield. “While the economy is expected to improve and interest rates will stay near historical lows, housing supply constraints will continue to be an issue next year and may put a cap on sales growth in 2021.”